Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic downgraded Fireplace & Flower (OTC: FFLWF) and Auxly Hashish Group to Impartial from Chubby and minimize his value targets for each. Challenges inside the Canadian hashish market had been cited because the overarching cause.
Zuanic famous that the market appears to have hit a saturation level. He wrote in his report, “There at the moment are over 3,300 shops in Canada (~1,600 in ON; 765 in AB, 435 in BC, 89 in QB). Retailer density in Canada (85 shops per 1mn individuals, with ON at 108) is above that in most states within the US, ex CO (129), OR (171), and OK (590).” He went on to write down, “Value deflation in Canada (flower costs down 36% within the final two years), has not all been attributable to competitors amongst licensed producers (LPs), but additionally by some retailers slicing costs and pursuing a reduction technique. Thus, total, we expect it is a robust market local weather for retailing.” At this level, Cantor solely provides three hashish firms an Chubby score and people are Aurora (ACB), Organigram (OGI), and Village Farms (VFF).
Fireplace & Flower
Zuanic dropped his score on Fireplace & Flower to Impartial from Chubby and lowered his 12-month value goal to C$2.60 from C$9.50 (final revealed 4/26/22) on decreased estimates and elevated operational dangers. It was final buying and selling at $1.65 or C$2.11. He wrote, “Our latest surveys present that Fireplace & Flower shops (factoring-in its Spark membership presents) at the moment are pricing in step with Excessive Tide’s shops (NASDAQ: HITI), under Nova Hashish, and well-below the OCS on-line retailer. Whereas we imagine this is sensible, we expect aggressive dynamics have compelled Fireplace & Flower to take extra draconian measures on the pricing entrance than administration might have initially envisaged. The transition (probably elevated gross sales however decrease margins) generates uncertainty and makes us marvel in regards to the firm’s means to make significant enhancements to money burn; we expect that is additionally mirrored by the corporate’s determination to delay its NASDAQ itemizing.”
Following the April quarter, the cantor analyst famous that gross sales fell 4% seq to $41 million, with retail retailer revenues dropping 7% sequentially and that same-store gross sales fell 26% year-over-year to $30 million. Along with that, the shop depend fell to 101 shops on the finish of April from 105 on the finish of January. He additionally identified that tech revenues had been down 28% to $3 million, and wholesale and supply was up (however on decrease margins).
That mentioned, we respect Fireplace & Flower’s asset-light technique, prudent brick & mortar development plans, its inroads in tech companies and supply, and the strategic advantages of the partnership with Circle-Okay (ATD.TO/NC). Nevertheless, given heightened aggressive challenges and additional potential shareholder dilution down the street, we now want to fee the inventory Impartial.
The analyst lowered his 12-month value goal on Auxly to C$0.08 from C$0.20 on decreased estimates and a decrease a number of used. The inventory was final buying and selling at $0.06 or C$0.075. Zuanic wrote, “The heavy debt load and certain equity-holder additional dilution, mixed with worsening scanner developments immediate us to downgrade our score to Impartial. We do see a lot enchancment on money burn. Primarily based on our math, Auxly has the best debt-to-sales ratio amongst LPs. This contains convertible debt held by Imperial Manufacturers (IMB.LN/NC) due Sep 2024; however with a conversion value of $0.81, we expect phrases shall be renegotiated.”
The analyst additionally lowered his gross sales estimates based mostly on the most recent Hifyre information, which confirmed Auxly dropping additional market share within the vape and flower segments (vape is >40% of gross sales, and the corporate’s vape share is now 16% vs. 24% a yr in the past), and gross sales dropping at a sooner tempo at retail. He additionally identified that Auxly has been reducing costs, which isn’t an excellent signal for profitability. Having mentioned that he believes Auxly might nonetheless be a beautiful goal (given 2.0 share, pre-rolls beneficial properties, and supposedly more-efficient flower cultivation), however the convertible debt held by Imperial Manufacturers might deter events.
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